Church Trends for 2025: Gen Z, Evangelism, Pastoral Mental Health, and More
In today’s newsletter:
- Church Trends for 2025: Gen Z, Evangelism, Pastoral Mental Health, and More
- Europe’s Economy, Market Watch, and CES Launches
- New Year’s Resolutions for Business Owners
In a recent episode of his The Carey Nieuhoff Leadership Podcast, evangelical thought leader Nieuhoff shares what he thinks the 5 biggest trends facing churches and ministries in 2025 are going to be. Nieuhoff has some success in calling out relevant patterns and emerging movements within the church, so we wanted to zoom in today and examine what he says is coming for the church in America, and what we can do about it.
#1 – Gen Z Is Fragmented
A lot of times we like to look at generations or other demographics as a monolith. “What are the Millennials like?” or “What are the Boomers up to?” While there can sometimes be value in looking at a group in total, sometimes incorrectly batching disparate groups because of their age can make us miss what is really happening. Case in point, Carey says that Gen Z appears to be in both a state of retreat AND in revival.
If that sounds funny, just wait. It gets stranger.
Events such as the Asbury revival of a couple of years ago reportedly still echo on college campuses here and there throughout the country, but at the same time, church attendance keeps going down for Gen Z. Pulling a lot of data from Barna, Nieuhoff reports that while 22% of Gen Z was attending church in 2020, only 16% reported weekly attendance just three years later in 2023. This is a big drop. Not only that, in 2020, 28% reported that they never attend church, and that number rose to 38% never attending in 2023.
So, anecdotally, there are a lot of fervent Gen Zers coming to faith in various places around the country, but in the data we still see quite a bit of breaking off from the church.
Part of the reason we may need to break “Gen Z” into multiple pieces for the sake of analysis is that adult Gen Z and teenage Gen Z seem pretty different from one another as our culture continues to fragment. Barna says that 2/3 of Gen Z reports being spiritually open – but that number seems to drop significantly when we are talking about Gen Z individuals who have crossed the threshold into adulthood.
Carey’s suggestion is that churches really need to focus on bringing up the youth, and keeping teens and young adults engaged, equipped, and paid attention to.
Carey even points out how important it is for church members (or business leaders taking part in a local church) to make an effort to foster relationships with Gen Z young adults in the church, help them find opportunities, and mentor them where appropriate. At the end of the day, feeling welcome and that you have a place in a church isn’t really an institutional problem to solve – it’s something we in the congregation have to do.
#2 – Evangelism is Reaching a Low Point
According to Barna, in 2015 13% of churches reported that they were effective at reaching the unchurched. In 2023, that number had fallen to 1%. Carey says that in a healthy situation, that number would be closer to 40 or 50%.
His explanation is that the mass exodus from the church during Covid revealed a fickleness in the followers that the church had raised up (there are other explanations for the exodus during this time, but this is what Carey espouses). In response, he says, pastors have emphasized discipleship in order to keep their people and deepen their faith. All well and good, but in his analysis, Nieuhoff says that the American church will die a slow death if we become overly insular, or focused only inward. Just 3-5% of churches that are growing in America today are growing via conversion. We have good data from the Southern Baptist Convention, so he uses their data to show that many churches don’t convert a single person or baptize a single person over the course of the year – 43% of SBC churches, in fact. An additional 34% only baptized 1-5 people over the course of a year.
He says the solution and strategy are not obvious, and it will require some work, but the church needs to take evangelism more seriously.
Otherwise, the movement in the U.S. could die – which brings us to his third trend.
#3 – Church Closures Outpace Church Plants 3:1
Prior to Covid, around 3,000 new churches were planted each year in the United States (data after Covid is harder to obtain for new church plants). Meanwhile, between 4,000 and 10,000 churches are closing each year in the U.S. According to Nieuhoff, analysis of the data ends up making it likely that the current rate of churches closing to new churches being planted is about three to one, meaning that for every one church that starts, three more close.
Nieuhoff takes it at face value that we simply need more churches to do the work. The average church plant launches with $135k in funding at between 100 and 200 attendees, which is viable, but somewhat borderline from a financial standpoint if they are practicing typical non-denominational evangelical church operations. Churches that launch with less money have far fewer attendees, and these are not likely to make it, in his view. One takeaway from Nieuhoff is that we ought to increase the number of church plants, but to do so slowly and deliberately – and with more funding. A church that launches with $322k in seed money typically has 500+ attendees at launch, and those churches are better positioned to make it financially.
It may be worthwhile for business leaders inside of local churches to involve themselves in the church-planting committees, or find those in your community who feel led to start a church and help them through the financial, fundraising, or operations planning. This is an area where the average reader of Sent to Win may have some real skills to help in their local context.
#4 – Non-Derivative Churches Are Growing
Some outlets have reported a rise in young people attending traditional church services and seeking out orthodox and liturgical denominations. Carey says that in his travels, he has noticed even in evangelical churches that the ones that are really thriving are starting to divest from the cookie-cutter approach that characterized the church growth movement of recent decades.
More and more, people don’t want a church that reflects the culture so strongly, playing the same Christian top hits songs that imitate the billboard top songs from a few years ago. They have grown tired of the simplistic formula of a “dynamic communicator” type of pastor, videos of cheery volunteers, and a big push for small groups. People are yearning for distinctiveness, for church to feel like church and not a concert, motivational conference, or club.
Churches ought to consider how they can be less about following the trends (ironically, given the discussion of church trends) and more about being authentic and unashamed of their uniqueness from the rest of the culture.
#5 – The Church Leader Mental Health Crisis Is Probably Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better
In 2022, we had an all-time high of percentage of pastors who seriously considered quitting full-time ministry during the course of that year: 42%. In 2023 that was down to 33%, but still a sizable portion of our leadership – and there are other factors at play as well.
In 2015, 37% of pastors said they received monthly spiritual and personal support from peers or mentors, but that number is down to 19% today, and increasingly pastors seem to be struggling with intensifying, pervasive loneliness and isolation in their work.
21% of church leaders over the age of 45 say they are flourishing in their personal well-being, while only 7% of those under the age of 45 say the same.
Nieuhoff says it’s difficult to have a healthy church movement when the leaders are so unhealthy.
His solution is that we have to say goodbye to the days of treating church organizations like competitive tech startups, where 60 + hour weeks are expected of staff, where you hear things like “Sleep when you’re dead,” or “Burn out for Jesus.” These cultures have proven to be toxic, in addition to unbiblical. Leaders need to model balance in their own lives and allow their staff to practice balance as well. After all, aren’t we the religion of Sabbath Rest?
Business leaders may be able to help here, too. Large churches in particular are often run much like businesses, but since oftentimes the leadership has no other experience running an organization, HR, compliance, and other departments can sometimes be sorely lacking. Offering to do management training, operations advising, or leadership development can be a big help to a church trying to figure out how to thrive in a 24/7 environment that actually allows people to rest and feel proud of their work at the church – not burned out.
Conclusion
The trends identified by Nieuhoff seem to indicate that running a church or religious non-profit in 2025 will probably be harder than in past years and require some changes in practices and strategy in order to be successful in the mission. The old playbook, evidently, has proven to have some serious weaknesses, and churches need to adapt in order to reach the lost and in order to stay open to minister to the needy among them. But this time the answer can’t simply be, “Work harder, sacrifice more, spend more, do more.” It has to be wisdom, restraint, outreach, support, and rest. Where possible, business leaders ought to offer their resources, connections, and expertise to help with these challenges.
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INDUSTRY INSIGHTS
Europe’s Economy, Market Watch, and CES Launches Exciting New Products
Europe’s Economy
The two largest economies in Europe, Germany and France, are both without a budget going into 2025 and experiencing some political turmoil. This has been called a “debt crisis in slow motion,” and some economists believe that Europe is on the trajectory for a long, downward slide into economic stagnation.
Unlike economic crises in the Eurozone in recent decades, affecting countries such as Spain and Greece, what happens in Germany and France affects the entire bloc. Governments have collapsed in both these nations recently, largely over an inability to agree on how to handle economic issues. While France is overspending, ironically, Germany’s woes come from being too tight-fisted and not investing enough resources into growth, as well as other factors limiting their growth.
Market Watch
Mortgage demand took a nosedive last month: after adjusting for seasonality, 2024 closed out down 22%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up to a two-decade high as markets brace for the incoming administration, and in a possibly-related development, Bitcoin topped $100k for the first time in 2025 on Monday, only the second time ever the cryptocurrency has surpassed that elusive mark.
The S&P 500 has been up and down like a sine wave the past month, but it recently went on an impressive rally, pumping it up over 6,000. The Biden administration permanently banned millions of acres of ocean real estate from off-shore drilling, which could affect futures and prices in the coming years.
The price of gold has been slowly trending downward since its record-breaking high in mid-December.
CES Launches Exciting New Products
The Consumer Electronics Show, or CES, opened this week for several days of new product debuts, popular brand announcements, and much more.
The biggest consumer tech convention of the year, we’ve already seen incredible, cutting-edge technologies – and the conference is just getting started. Some of the highlights so far include Samsung’s Smart Home tech, which integrates AI into numerous at-home products, including a grow box powered by AI to help keep indoor plants alive.
The gaming world got what they hoped for when Nvidia showcased their next generation of graphics cards, including the GeForce RTX 5090 (yours for $2,000!).
Other cool gadgets that catch headlines include lava lamp speakers by JBL, “rollable” screens by Lenovo, and Aptera’s EV which runs on solar power! Want to see more? Check out “The Best Stuff We’ve Seen at CES So Far” from The Verge.
Sunday School
Q. How many Christians are there in the world today?
A. According to demographic data, there are nearly 2.4 billion people who practice some form of Christianity. The largest sect is Catholicism, with around 1.2 billion members worldwide.
TIPS & TRICKS
New Year’s Resolutions for Business Owners
It’s almost a cliché at this point: Do you work in your business, or do you work on your business? Your answer to this question might just tell you everything you need to know about how you ought to be tackling 2025.
Michael Gerber, in his seminal work The E-Myth, outlines a common trap that business owners find themselves in. Namely, they opened a business because they were passionate about the work, or very skilled at it, but while this allowed for initial success, it became problematic as the business grew.
A thriving watch-making organization doesn’t need its CEO at the workbench making watches most of the time. It needs a CEO securing new distribution channels, recruiting top talent, managing, casting vision, investing, and fundraising. But the pressure of jumping in there to shore up production is real – especially when you’re the best craftsman (or accountant, or lawyer, etc.) at your company. We only have 24 hours a day, and leaders who spend all their time in their business never build up their business to new heights.
So what’s the solution?
It may vary from person to person, but today, we’re going to dive into three ideas for how to pull yourself away from the nitty-gritty of working in your business and focusing on working on your business.
After all, no one else can do it for you. Let’s start with the first resolution:
#1 – Resolve to Expand Your Network
A huge part of effective leadership is building partnerships, delegating, and opening up new opportunities for revenue and growth. This means working your network, and actively growing your web of business relationships. Ask yourself this question: “Do I have time set aside on a regular basis to meet the sort of people who can help me grow my business?”
If the answer is no, never fear – the solution is simple.
Schedule a time to get out of the office where you will mix with other professionals and business owners who could be of help to your business. This might mean joining your local chamber of commerce (and being active about meeting people when you attend), or it might mean sitting on the board of a community bank in your area, or it could mean planning to host a table or a workshop at a trade show for your industry. Networking is not just a buzzword, it’s how we build the team of vendors, support, and personnel that are necessary for optimal growth.
#2 – Resolve to Focus on Employee Development
If no one else can do what you do at your company… this might actually be a bad sign, particularly if we are talking about the nitty gritty of performing the service your company provides or creating the product. As your organization grows, there will naturally be more work than a single person can handle.
What often happens is a growing organization loses long-time, loyal customers while they grow because the quality of their product or service becomes variable. Not everyone can be serviced by the owner, and if you haven’t invested in bringing up your employees to your level of competence, problems start to ensue.
Before that happens, why not make a point of developing your team? Invest in their skills, consider intense mentorship for the most promising employees, and teach your tricks to anyone whose work will end up representing the company.
Even if you aren’t the owner who is trying to do it all and starting to fall behind, employees like growing their skills and feeling like they are being invested in. So how are you planning on doing employee development this year?
Take ten minutes, grab some privacy, and write down a list of hard or soft skills your team would benefit from improving. Then, figure out the best way to do training, mentorship, or continuing education for your employees this year.
#3 Resolve to Set Aside Time to Focus on Strategy
One of the difficult things about shifting away from working in your business to working on your business is that working in your business is measurable in the short term. “I cleaned three houses today” seems more productive than, “I brainstormed for two hours, had a call with a growth expert, and had a team meeting to discuss strategy.” It’s easy to feel restless and to say, “Well, at least I brought in money” when you go out into the field, and to feel frustrated when your day is full of meetings.
Nevertheless, investing in strategy over time can pay off in a big way. A leader’s primary job is to set the course for the future, and the plain, simple reality is, this takes time, research, and brain power.
Do what you need to do in order to effectively strategize and keep your eyes on the big picture.
For some, this will look like scheduling a daily walk for thirty minutes, free of distractions, to come up with ideas. For others, this will look like putting together a “brain trust” that has weekly meetings, where you can assign research tasks and ask your team to present their findings so that you can come up with ideas together. This might look like hiring a business coach, joining a reputable mastermind group, or scheduling time to sit down and read some books.
TL;DR
2025 is a chance for a fresh start, new growth, and a fresh way of doing things. As a business owner, make sure that you are getting out of the office and meeting people, that you take the time to develop your staff, and that you create space for creativity and vision-casting.
Sheila wasn’t happy, but she had to admit that Jeff really was sticking to his New Year’s Resolution of “Play way more video games.”
Quick Hits
- Will the stock market rally continue in 2025? Analysts say yes. Here’s the NYT’s Bull and Bear case for 2025.
- Has China successfully avoided Trump’s tariffs? Chinese final assembly factories have popped up around the world.
- World Magazine chronicles important religious liberty cases that have cropped up in 2024 and may affect how Americans can educate their children and run religious organizations.
- The Biden administration blocked Nippon and U.S. Steel from merging. Now, these companies are suing the U.S. government.
- A ski patrol strike in Park City disrupts the nation’s largest resort skiing destination.
Our “Church Trends for 2025” graphic was generated using AI prompts. Guess the prompt for your chance to win Sent To Win gear. Just reply to this email with your best guess.
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