It’s complicated.

College enrollment has been steadily declining for over a decade, down 8.5% since 2010, especially among males. However, this decline is not evenly distributed. Many 4-year public colleges have managed to increase their undergraduate enrollment by about 15% from 2010-2021, while enrollment at private for-profit colleges fell 54% over the same period of time. Private non-profit colleges increased enrollment modestly, at about 2.7%. Full-time, first-time undergraduate enrollment market share for Christian institutions grew from 5% in 2011 to 9% in 2021, and the total number of students enrolled in Christian colleges nearly doubled over this same time period.

Notice, however, that these numbers come from datasets that end in 2021. It’s been rough since then.

The pandemic lockdowns, which hit hardest after 2021, had an outsized effect on Christian colleges, however, with over 40% of the institutions that closed or consolidated being Christian.

“The market for students interested in a Christian education… is small,” says Johanna Trovato, principal analyst at Encoura.

“Many Christian universities,” explains Matthew Smith from The Gospel Coalition, “have become overpriced, ineffective, and increasingly secular… Private Christian universities are bleeding students and losing money. Some colleges have closed permanently.”

CNN recently did a story reporting that “Small private colleges are struggling to keep their doors open as declining enrollment leads to financial instability.” Their first example? A small, Christian, liberal arts college in Pennsylvania that will close its doors for good this summer.

So who are the winners and losers in this constantly shifting environment, marred by a generalized decline of interest in going to college, a generalized decline in faith, an ongoing ideological war between students, faculty, and donors, and sharply rising tuition rates? And what can we learn from those who have managed to thrive?

The Winners

Grand Canyon University, a for-profit Christian college in Arizona, continues to set personal records for enrollment, as does Liberty University in Virginia. GCU recently had 118,000 students enrolled, and Liberty boasted 130,000. But here’s the trick –
At GCU, 92,000 of those students (78%) were online students.

At Liberty, 115,000 (88%) were online students.

Online universities have long since lost the stigma they once had, according to Forbes, and the tradeoff looks an awful lot better. In-person tuition, on average, costs three times as much as online tuition for an identical credential from a private institution. This represents a much-needed market adjustment for the consumer, who has seen a 4-year public university tuition rise 179% over the past two decades and a 124% increase in the already much higher tuition costs of 4-year private universities. Since online courses cost much less for universities to provide, it’s a financial win-win for students who are generally just looking for a credential and universities trying to remain profitable.

Far too many universities get distracted by diversity initiatives, student programming, administrative bloat, and prestige when the somewhat uncomfortable fact remains: Students (customers) just want a degree so they can get a job that pays well, has benefits, or is in a field that requires a diploma.

The… Not Winners

“Losers” just seemed too harsh because it really is a tough environment for smaller schools with differing aims and resources. That said, not everyone has successfully navigated these changing times.

Take Lincoln Christian University, for instance. A small, Christian university in Illinois that had been proudly operating for nearly a century, LCU tried to downsize last year in order to survive, by only offering two ministry-related majors. But this year they’ve had to announce that they will close at the end of the current school year.

“Schools [with enrollment] under 2,000 we know are at greater risk,” says LCU president Silas McCormick. “Rural schools are also at a greater risk… There are a lot of causes.”

As larger schools capitalize on economies of scale, and the internet allows more recognizable collegiate brands to compete more directly with small, Christian colleges, many simply won’t survive.

Christianity Today even published a list of many such Christian institutions that shut their doors since the pandemic, and more recently, universities such as St. Katherine in California and Wells College in New York have announced their closures. Wells College has operated for 156 years. Both universities cited extreme financial pressures, and one college now closes every week in the United States.

The Primary Takeaway

The university is such an iconic institution, tied to nostalgic memories, tradition, history, and high ideals. The reality of the current situation, however, is that we live in a country that sees credentials as a requirement, subsidizes degrees at taxpayer expense, and the economy is making it increasingly difficult for the younger generations to get ahead. If school administrators and trustees are thinking inside-out (starting with their own thoughts and preferences), they will spend resources and time on the student experience, niche degree programs, and costly buildings. If they are thinking outside-in (starting with what the consumer wants/needs), however, they will focus their efforts on a streamlined, low-cost solution that disrupts a student’s life as little as possible.

As business owners, it is far too easy to fall into emphasizing what we want for our customers, as opposed to starting from the need. There is a reason low-cost airlines have become the norm – travelers do value comfort, but at the end of the day, they’d rather save a couple hundred bucks and just get where they need to go. College, increasingly, isn’t much different for the majority of students. The schools that recognize this (and put resources toward attracting an 80% online student body) seem to be doing better than their top-heavy counterparts.

So ask yourself – what do your customers need? What do they really need, beyond anything else, from your business?
If you can answer that quandary honestly and provide a quality solution, your business will thrive even in an adverse business climate.

Just look at GCU and Liberty.

Quick Hits

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• Website Builder Squarespace will no longer be a publically traded company, after $7 billion private equity purchase.
• In another blow to the record labels, Oliver Anthony of “Rich Men North of Richmond” fame recently released an independent album, titled “Hymnal of a Troubled Man’s Mind.” Oliver previously turned down an $8 million contract.
• “The Chosen” is now the most-translated T.V. show in the world, available in 50 languages.
• Open AI revealed their newest AI model on Monday, GPT-40.