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In today’s newsletter:

• Are Black Friday and Cyber Monday Worth the Hype?
• The Economy, Christmas, and Oil Ups and Downs
• Free to Focus: a total productivity system to achieve more by doing less

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Every year, the media starts buzzing about Black Friday before Thanksgiving even hits. They give forecasts for retail sales, consumer enthusiasm, and they ask what this could mean for fourth quarter profits, the stock market, and the GDP as a whole.

But as a small to medium sized business owner or entrepreneur, should Black Friday mean anything to you? After all, it’s well established that large consumer brands inflate their prices in the lead up to Black Friday in order to be able to give greater discounts. So are these high holy days of consumerism just hype, or is it really a once-a-year opportunity to get your balance sheet in the black?

Let’s look at the numbers.

Cyber Monday, 2022 was the biggest online shopping day in history, with an estimated $11.3 billion in sales. The average shopper spent a whopping $312.

Does that mean Cyber Monday (the Monday that follows Black Friday) has overshadowed its predecessor? Not even close.

Black Friday, 2022, saw $9.12 billion in ecommerce sales in the U.S. alone. That’s just ecommerce – and some data experts nearly double that estimate. In-person sales are much more difficult to track and aggregate, but data from the National Retail Federation easily pushes Black Friday past Cyber Monday. Conversion rates go up, average dollar amount per transaction increases, and with Shopify reporting a record $3.36 billion in sales on Black Friday, 2022 – there is ample reason to believe that small sellers participated in the bounty as well. Amazon and Walmart take a big piece of the pie, but there’s plenty to go around.

But what about the economy? It seems like a reasonable fear that the market could take a dip between now and late November, and if it does, won’t that affect shoppers’ decision to spend on Black Friday?

Strangely, a bad economy might increase sales on these two consumer holidays. As the widespread perception portrays Black Friday as an opportunity to save money on Christmas shopping, it is inherently recession-resistant. Discount goods typically fare well in a down economy. And Christmas, after all, comes but once a year.

It isn’t often that consumers come pre-trained to spend money on a given day, and as a business owner, marketer, or salesman, you can’t afford to miss the opportunity.

But the big players are dumping an incredible amount of money into advertising for Thanksgiving Weekend sales, and, additionally, small companies often cannot afford to discount their products and services as deeply as major retailers. How can the little guy compete?

How to Benefit from the Holiday Weekend Sales

Here’s the first bit of good news: According to the National Retail Federation, the number one factor that inclines shoppers to buy on Black Friday is free shipping. 49% of those surveyed indicated that free shipping was a contributing factor to their decision – and most small and medium-sized businesses can afford to knock off the shipping fee for the retail holiday. Limited time sales help too, so as long as your product or service is unique from what the big box chains are selling, any kind of discount should get you in the game.

The second bit of good news?

There is room for you.

We all know Amazon is the 800lb gorilla, but their share of online sales only accounts for about 25% of the total. Certainly, that is a huge share for just one company, but the numbers drop drastically from there. Best Buy and Walmart combined account for less than 15%, and retailers like Macy’s and Kohl’s only take a couple of percentage points. That leaves a lot of pie for the rest of us.

Just make sure your site and promotions are mobile-optimized, as phones make up the majority of site visits on Black Friday.

And if you have a personal distaste for how Black Friday distracts from Thanksgiving, one more bit of good news.

Many Consumers Are Over the Stampede

From Practical Ecommerce:

The frenzy of Black Friday brick-and-mortar shopping seems to have waned. People no longer line up outside stores in the early morning to be the first inside. More physical stores are either not opening on Thanksgiving or are opening for limited hours. People are content to shop online on Thanksgiving from their smartphones. However many want to pick up their purchases in stores on Black Friday. BOPIS is growing. [BOPIS stands for Buy Online, Pickup In Store]

So forget the pressure of skipping Thanksgiving with your family, but make sure you come up with a can’t-resist promotion Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year. It might just put you in the black.

INDUSTRY INSIGHTS

The Economy, Christmas, and Oil Ups and Downs

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The Economy by the Numbers

The U.S. inflation rate was sitting at 3.7% as of September 30th, with the October unemployment rate increasing slightly to 3.9%. According to an advance estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Q3 real GDP increased 4.9%. Since May, real wages have finally begun increasing slightly – the first time since 2021 that they have done so. Inflation is still too high, and there are reasons to be wary of a serious market correction, but it is encouraging to see some positive numbers in looking back at the most recent quarter.

Christmas Is Coming

The NRF forecasts a record year for holiday shopping, claiming that spending will increase 3-4% over last year. This is less impressive when compared with the inflationary data from 2022 – 2023, which suggests that this increase is merely keeping pace with rising prices, not reflecting a rise in demand or purchasing power. Additionally, in order to avoid the end of the year crunch, over 40% of shoppers say they will begin their Christmas shopping in November this year. In other trends, 33% of shoppers will do some buying via social media platforms, while a whopping 48% of Gen Zers plan to do their holiday shopping on TikTok and Instagram. The number of people who intend to “splurge” on Christmas gifts this year – for themselves or for others – has declined from last year. This, however, is largely driven by Gen Z, while Boomers and Gen X expressed a greater desire to splurge. At the aesthetic level, designers expect this year’s Christmas to be less ornate, more minimalistic, incorporating natural elements rather than flashy, bright designs, which is good to keep in mind for this year’s holiday messaging.

Oil Ups and Downs

Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei called on the Islamic members of OPEC to stop exporting oil to countries that support Israel, a decision which, if implemented, could cause chaos in global markets and greatly increase fuel costs, like the 1973 embargo did decades ago. WTI crude oil currently sits at just under $80/barrel, while Brent crude hovers around $84. U.S. oil production continues its steady upward climb, however, with the first week of October marking an all-time high. Contrary to popular belief, some oil refineries are still being built in the US, with the most recent having begun operation only last year, while many existing refineries have been updated and expanded to increase capacity.

Sunday School

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Q. How many of the twelve disciples can you name?

1-3: Participation Award
4-6: Sunday School Graduate
7-11: Seminary Student
12: Bible Bookworm

A. Peter, Andrew, James (son of Zebedee), John, Thaddeus, Judas, Philip, Bartholomew, Nathaniel, Thomas, James (son of Alphaeus), Matthew

TIPS & TRICKS

“When you told me you wanted to spend more of your workday reading, I thought you meant business books, or personal growth… but every time I see you you’re reading that book about anti-gravity.”
“I can’t put it down.”

Book Recommendation

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Business/Productivity

Free to Focus: a total productivity system to achieve more by doing less

By: Michael Hyatt

We all get the same 168 hours per week – so why is it that some people seem to never have enough time in the day, while others seem confident, collected, successful, and at peace? Finishing one task usually leads to another, and the tyranny of the urgent can fill our calendars more and more until we start dropping things – to say nothing of the stress.

This is a problem we all know to avoid, but in practice, it is difficult to fight the slow creep of an overbooked, inefficient, draining schedule. So how can we stop the cycle?

In Michael Hyatt’s influential work Free to Focus, he presents business leaders with a system that they can fall back on, a system to organize their time and responsibilities while still prioritizing faith, family, and the things that matter most. This book is a quick read and always very practical, giving suggestions for concrete steps to take in order to improve your focus, effectiveness, and productivity while clearing away the inessential. Hyatt treads some well-worn ground in terms of delegation and prioritization (good reminders for anyone), but he also offers many innovative, insightful ideas that you don’t hear from other sources very often.

One such idea is the “ideal week,” where Hyatt encourages his readers not to plan daily, but weekly, since the natural rhythm of business changes from Monday to Friday. It can be extremely helpful to put most of your meetings onto the same day, have a planning/strategy day, have a finances day, inventory day, etc. When we try to squeeze a little bit of every responsibility into each and every day, the constant shifting around makes it difficult to get into deep focus where we can actually be effective and solve problems.

Free to Focus delivers on its central promise, and it is a must-read for anyone who feels that they are getting busier and yet less effective, or missing out on the parts of life that take place outside of the office.

You can check out Free to Focus here.

Quick Hits

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• As of Tuesday, the S&P500 has risen for seven consecutive days.
• International House of Prayer (IHOPKC) founder Mike Bickle has stepped away from ministry pending an outside review of sexual misconduct allegations.
• As Daylight Savings Time comes to a close this past week, Pew Research reveals that the practice’s popularity is waning worldwide, with only about a third of countries now participating, down from half of countries in years past.
• Antisemitism has reached “historic levels” in the U.S., according to the FBI.
• Billionaire Mets owner Steve Cohen revealed plans for an $8 billion hotel, gambling, and entertainment megaplex just outside of Citi Field in Queens, NY.

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Guess the Prompt

Our “Black Friday and Cyber Monday” graphic was generated using AI prompts. Guess the prompt for your chance to win Sent To Win gear. Just reply to this email with your best guess.

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